[Archive] Be Careful What You Wish For: The President Ocasio-Cortez Test

While I am away on a short trip, I thought I would repost a few of my earlier post. This post actually got lots of attention—both good and bad. Some on the left accused me of being both racist and sexists for suggesting that AOC would be a viable Presidential candidate—or at least one that Republicans might most fear. Most folks however got my point—at least until now no political party has ever had permanent power—and that the precedents being set by Trump today can be used by Democrats in the future.

This will make me unpopular with most of my Democratic and progressive friends, but in hindsight perhaps we should thank Kyrsten Sinema and Joe Manchin. Despite significant political pressure they held firm and insisted that the filibuster be maintained. As a result, with few exceptions, no bill can pass the Senate unless 60 Senators agree to let the matter go to a vote. In explaining her opposition, Sinema warned her fellow Democrats that they would not always be in power, and what they gain by a simple majority could be lost by a simple majority:

“Eliminating a 60-vote threshold, on a party line, with the thinnest of possible majorities, to pass these bills that I support will not guarantee that we prevent demagogues from winning office,” she said. “Rather, eliminating the 60-vote threshold will simply guarantee that we lose a critical tool that we need to safeguard our democracy from threats in the years to come.”

What Sinema warned about has come to pass. A Trump-controlled Republican party now controls the House, Senate and the Presidency. But for the cloture requirements, they would have the majorities they need to make major policy changes on a host of issues. Thanks to Manchin and Sinema, with the exception of the reconciliation bill—which has its own guardrails—they will needed Democratic votes for any bill to pass the Senate.

There is an important lesson here for Republicans. History teaches that political fortunes change and a Democrat will once again be President. Before applauding Trump’s assertion of power, they ought to ask the question: what if the Democrat I most hate were to become President and use this same power?

I call this the President Ocasio-Cortez test, but you should use which ever Democrat most scares you.

What the Trump Administration is able to do, a future President Ocasio-Cortez will be able to do as well. The Wall Street Journal made this very point in an editorial yesterday in discussing Trump’s threats to take away the tax exempt status of Harvard and progressive non-profits:

Some conservatives are cheering on Mr. Trump, but they might not like it when President Ocasio-Cortez is in charge. They were rightly indignant when the IRS under President Obama was found to have targeted the tax exemptions of right-leaning 501(c)(4) nonprofits, including pro-Israel groups. The Court’s reasoning in Bob Jones University would allow the President to revoke a charity’s or university’s tax exemption for political reasons. A Democratic President could declare a think tank that opposes its climate or transgender bathroom rules to be acting contrary to “established public policy.”

And there many other examples. If Trump really has the power to fire members of bodies such as the NLRB and FTC with no reason, President Ocasio-Cortez can do so as well. If the FCC can take away NBC’s broadcasting license because of how it covers a news story—as the FCC Chairman has threatened to do—President Ocasio-Cortez can take away the licenses of Fox and Newsmax. If Trump can bar federal contractors from hiring law firms he dislikes, President Ocasio-Cortez can do the same to law firms she dislikes. If Trump can take away the security clearances of everyone he dislikes, President Ocasio-Cortez can take away the security clearance of every registered Republican. If Trump can simply refuse to spend funds appropriated by Congress to USAID and other agencies, then President Ocasio-Cortez can effectively cut the Defense budget simply by refusing to spend what Congress has appropriated.

I remain hopeful that each and every one of these power grabs by Trump will be soundly rejected by the courts. And I appreciate that many principled conservative lawyers—such as Ed Whelan, Michael McConnell, Ilya Somin and Andy McCarthy— have raised concerns about Trump’s disregard for the rule of law.

For those thrilled at Trump’s actions, however, I suggest that they remember that political power is fleeting. The Republicans will not always in control. They should remember Senator Sinema’s caution to her own party, and ask themselves: how could a President Ocasio-Cortez use this power? If that thought horrifies them, they ought to reconsider supporting Trump doing so.