Are Democrats Making a Mistake By Focusing on Immigration?

Recent Polls Suggest Not

Immigration policy has long been a Trump strength, and a Democratic Party weakness. There can be no doubt that the large influx of migrants at the U.S. border in the Biden Administration was a huge issue in the 2024 election. Moreover, polls show the American public is generally supportive of the Trump efforts to deport millions of immigrants without lawful status—at least in the abstract.

Accordingly, when many prominent Democrats—most prominently Senator Chris Van Hollen—took a forceful public stand on the Abrego Garcia case, the Trump Administration was gleeful. It viewed this as a huge messaging opportunity—that Democrats were supporting criminals who don’t belong in the United States. Senator Amy Klobuchar noted that the administration “picked out this case and this man because it’s about a subject that they want to keep in the news.”

And may Democrats were concerned as well. Congressman Henry Cuellar (Texas) “criticized members of his party for focusing intently on the case involving Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the Maryland resident mistakenly deported to El Salvador last month,” according to The Hill. Unnamed political operatives were also warning the Democrats that the focus on this case was a huge political mistake, according to another The Hill Report:

“People can’t afford eggs, and … you’re flying to sit with someone who’s accused of being in a gang,” one Democratic operative told The Hill. “Republicans have given us such an opportunity with DOGE and … with Trump tanking the economy. Obviously, you can walk and chew gum at the same time, but I don’t think we can take our eyes off the prize in terms of talking about real, real world impacts and how people are being hurt in their everyday lives by some of these policies.”

“Democrats want to think that everyone has the same morals and values that we do, and we want to think that everyone’s outraged by the same things that we are and we want to be the ones to help people and stand up for the moral injustices. That doesn’t necessarily win elections though, and last cycle was proof positive of that,” the operative continued. “We need to step back and wait for someone to be deported who has a really compelling story that’s devastating that Average Joe’s upset about. That person hasn’t presented themselves yet, and Democrats are battling their better instincts and not just hop at the first sign of injustice.”

So are the Trump Administration and these Democratic critics right about the political damage to the Democratic brand from the focus on the Abrego Garcia case? Two recent polls released yesterday show that is not the case.

The New York Times/Siena College Poll of 913 voters nationwide, conducted from April 21 to 24 found a majority disapproving of the way Donald Trump is handling immigration, with 52% disapproving and 47% approving. And when asked about the Abrego Garcia case directly, only 31% approved of how the Trump Administration has handled the case, with 52% disapproving. While support of the Trump Administration was, as expected, much stronger among Republican (65% approving), a significant minority (17%) of Republicans disapproved.

The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll of 2,601 adults conducted April 18 to 22, found quite similar results. As reported in the Washington Post today, 53% disapprove of Trump’s handling of immigration, while 46% approve. When asked whether Abrego Garcia should be returned to the U.S. or kept in El Salvador, 42% said he should be returned to the U.S., with only 26% saying he should remain in El Salvador. Interesting, only a narrow majority (53%) of Republicans said that he should stay in El Salvador. Most (31%) were uncertain, but 14% of Republicans said that he should be returned to the U.S.

Those polled were more divided on the more fundamental issue of whether undocumented immigrants who are suspected of being members of a criminal group to a prison in El Salvador without a court hearing, but a majority (51% to 47%) were opposed, with—again—a sizable minority of Republicans (16%) opposed.

So what are we to make about this? I think these polls belie the claims that Democrats were spending too much time on the Abrego Garcia case and immigration policy in general. The move from support for Trump on Administration on immigration in February to opposition in April suggests that Democratic messaging on Trump’s strongest issue may be working.

I think there a larger lesson here. While Abrego Garcia’s family has focused on his character, most of the Democrats have focused instead on the more abstract principles of the rule of law and due process. The message was simple—there was a court order barring Abrego Garcia’s deportation to El Salvador that was violated and he deserves due process before that court order is overruled. It appears that this message was effective. I think the message was prudent because if focused on issues that resonate with most Americans—the right to due process and compliance with the rule of law—without getting caught up in the details of individual cases. There is a lesson here from the NAACP’s campaign for federal legislation on lynching: the focus was not on the guilt or innocence or character of lynching victims, but instead of the need for due process of the rule of law.

The message was not only prudent from a political point of view. As I argued in a previous post, it also reflects fundamental principles of U.S. Constitutional law. Our Nation’s founders insisted on due process for very good reasons and this insistence arose out of their own harsh experience. Even honest governments make mistakes. We are seeing that already in the growing numbers of U.S. citizens that have been erroneously caught up in the mass deportation effort. And sadly, even our government officials are sometimes less than honest. There is nothing more dangerous that an unchecked government official with an axe to grind or a zealous devotion to a cause. This is true regardless of which party is in power. Due process can cure the mistakes and check the unscrupulous government official.

It is this message—focused on American values—that is working.